Events and What's On

The Worshipful Company of Actuaries Lecture, Andrew Smith, Partner, Deloitte

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

MODELS IN FINANCE: HAZARDS AND SOLUTIONS FOR COMPLEXITY
Andrew Smith : Deloitte

Misuse of complex financial models contributed to the financial crisis of 2008/9. Despite
this history, insurers are pressing ahead with sophisticated model developments, likely
to leave the industry more reliant on complex mathematics than ever before.
Scientific advances offer the hope of better decisions at all levels of an organisation. On
the other hand, complexity produces its own challenges, including higher development
costs, frequent component failure and validation difficulties. Limited data, plurality of applicable
techniques and the importance of judgement lead to a wide range of possible
outputs. A number of factors may explain the selection within that range, including commercial
incentives facing those charged with the decision.

If you want to understand the latest generation of models, key points of strength and
weakness, then this lecture is for you. Andrew D Smith reveals commercial pressures
within the modelling process, using case studies to highlight threats to corporate profitability
and to the effectiveness of policyholder protection. How can insurance firms escape
a repeat of bankers' mistakes? Come to the WCA lecture and find out!


If you would like to attend this lecture please email Mrs Mary Wilson at M.Wilson@hw.ac.uk